Flexibility of multi-agent system models for rubber agroforest landscapes and social response to emerging reward mechanisms for ecosystem services in Sumatra, Indonesia

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have been widely recognized as an innovative management approach to address both environment conservation and human welfare while serving as a policy instrument to deal with the ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs resulting from land-use/ cover change (LUCC). However, there is no solid understanding of how PES could affect the synergies and trade-offs among ES. This research focuses on the LUCC and its inherent ES trade-offs in the context of social-ecological systems (SES) that incorporates key feedbacks and processes, and explores the possible impacts of management regimes, i.e., PES schemes (e.g., eco-certification and reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD)). To address the complexity of this research, a multi-agent simulation (MAS) model (LB-LUDAS - Lubuk Beringin - Land Use DynAmics Simulator) was applied in which process-based decision-making sub-models were incorporated in the decision-making mechanism of agents. The model was developed to explore policy scenarios by quantifying the potential ES trade-offs resulting from the agents’ land-use choices and preferences. It was first implemented for the rubber agroforest landscape in Jambi Province (Sumatra), Indonesia. Species richness, carbon sequestration, opportunity costs, and decision processes such as PES adoption and future land-use preferences sub-models were incorporated to capture as much as possible the real SES of a rubber agroforest landscape. Three scenarios were simulated over a 20-year period, namely the PES scenario, the scenario land-use preference if supported by financial assistance/subsidies (SUB), and the current trend as the baseline scenario. From the simulations, the key findings show that there was a minimal land-cover change under the PES scenario, where an estimated 22% of the species richness in rubber agroforests could be conserved and 97% of the carbon emissions reduced compared to the baseline scenario. For the SUB scenario, an estimated 6% of the species richness could be conserved and 47% of the carbon emissions reduced. With regard to livelihoods, only under the PES scenario was wealth inequality reduced up to 50%. Regarding the return for land investment, the profitability of a land-use type depends considerably on each scenario; however, rubber agroforests would be highly profitable (20%) if a price premium were to be implemented under an eco-certification scheme. The main conclusions of this study are firstly, that PES schemes for rubber agroforests could offer synergies among carbon emission reduction, biodiversity and livelihoods, thus reducing the trade-offs resulting from possible land-use/cover change, and secondly that the LB-LUDAS model as an integrated and MAS model is a useful tool to capture the ES trade-offs as an emergent property of the dynamic social-ecological systems at the same time serving as a negotiation-support system tool to support the design of land-use policies. The use of process-based decision making in the LB-LUDAS model is recommended in order to incorporate intended decisions of agents in various situations. In this way, the triggers, options and temporal and spatial aspects of agents’ reactions are captured in a relatively realistic way.Flexibilität von Multi-Agenten-Modellen für Gummi-Agroforste-Landschaften und die soziale Reaktion auf die neu entstehenden Belohnungsmechanismen für Ökosystemdienstleistungen in Sumatra, Indonesien Bezahlungen für Ökosystemdienstleistungen (PES) sind weit verbreitet und anerkannt als ein Managementansatz sowohl für den Umweltschutz als auch für das menschliche Wohlbefinden. Gleichzeitig dienen sie als Politikinstrument zur Behandlung der Folgen (ES trade-offs) durch Veränderungen in der Landnutzung/-bedeckung (LUCC). Es gibt jedoch kein solides Wissen darüber, wie sich PES auf die Synergien und trade-offs zwischen den ES auswirken könnten. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Studie liegt auf den LUCC und ihren inhärenten ES trade-offs im Kontext von sozial-ökologischen Systemen (SES), die wichtige Feedbacks und Prozesse berücksichtigen. Die Studie untersucht die möglichen Auswirkungen von Managementregimen, d.h., PES-Systeme (z.B. Ökozertifizierung und reduzierte Emissionen von Entwaldung und Degradation (REDD)). Um die Komplexität des Themas zu erfassen, wurde ein Multi-Agentensimulationsmodel (MAS; LB-LUDAS - Lubuk Beringin - Land Use DynAmics Simulator) eingesetzt, in dem prozessbasierte Entscheidungs-Submodelle in den Entscheidungsmechanismus der Agenten berücksichtigt werden. Das Modell wurde entwickelt, um verschiedene Szenarien durch die Quantifizierung der potentiellen ES trade-offs, die durch die Wahl bzw. Vorlieben der Agenten hinsichtlich der Landnutzung entstehen, zu untersuchen. Es wurde zuerst für die Landschaften der Gummi-Agroforste in Jambi Provinz (Sumatra), Indonesien, eingesetzt. Sub-Modelle wie Artenvielfalt, Kohlenstoffspeicherung, Opportunitätskosten und Entscheidungsprozesse wie Anwendung von PES und zukünftige Präferenzen wurden berücksichtigt, um so weit wie möglich die tatsächlichen SES von Gummi-Agroforsten zu erfassen. Drei Szenarien wurden über eine Periode von 20 Jahren simuliert nämlich das PES-Szenario, das Szenario Landnutzungspräferenz, wenn mit finanzieller Unterstützung bzw. Subventionen (SUB), sowie der aktuelle Trend als Grundszenario. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der Simulationen zeigen eine minimale Veränderung der Landnutzung im PES-Szenario wobei ca. 22% der Artenvielfalt in den Gummi-Agroforsten erhalten und die Kohlenstoffemissionen um 97% reduziert werden konnten verglichen mit dem Grundszenario. Bei dem SUB-Szenario konnten ca. 6% der Artenvielfalt erhalten und die Kohlenstoffemissionen um 47% reduziert werden. Hinsichtlich der Lebensgrundlagen wurden nur beim PES-Szenario die Wohlstandsungleichheit um bis zu 50% reduziert. Bei den Renditen für Investitionen in Land hängt Wirtschaftlichkeit sehr stark vom Landnutzungstyp ab; Gummi-Agroforste wären jedoch sehr profitabel (20%) bei einem Preisaufschlag in einem Ökozertifizierungsprogramm. Die wichtigsten Schlussfolgerungen dieser Untersuchung sind erstens, dass PES-Programme für Gummi-Agroforste zu Synergien zwischen Reduzierung von Kohlenstoffemissionen und Biodiversität sowie Lebensgrundlagen führen und damit die trade-offs reduzieren, die durch mögliche Veränderungen in der Landnutzung/-bedeckung entstehen können und zweitens, dass das LB-LUDAS-Modell als integriertes sowie als MAS-Modell ein nützliches Instrument darstellt, um die ES trade-offs als eine zu Tage tretende Eigenschaft der dynamischen sozialen-ökologischen Systemen zu erfassen. Gleichzeitig dient das Modell als Instrument zur Unterstützung von Verhandlungen bei der Planung von Landnutzungsmaßnahmen. Der Einsatz prozessbasierter Entscheidungen im LB-LUDAS-Modell um geplante Entscheidungen von Agenten in verschiedenen Situationen zu berücksichtigen, wird empfohlen. Auf diese Art können die Auslöser, die Optionen sowie die zeitlichen und räumlichen Aspekte der Reaktionen der Agenten auf relativ realistische Weise erfasst werden

Contrasting stakeholder and scientist conceptual models of food-energy-water systems: a case study in Magic Valley, Southern Idaho

One of the factors for the success of simulation studies is close collaboration with stakeholders in developing a conceptual model. Conceptual models are a useful tool for communicating and understanding how real systems work. However, models or frameworks that are not aligned with the perceptions and understanding of local stakeholders can induce uncertainties in the model outcomes. We focus on two sources of epistemic uncertainty in building conceptual models of food-energy-water systems (FEWS): (1) context and framing; and (2) model structure uncertainty. To address these uncertainties, we co-produced a FEWS conceptual model with key stakeholders using the Actor-Resources-Dynamics-Interaction (ARDI) method. The method was adopted to specifically integrate public (and local) knowledge of stakeholders in the Magic Valley region of Southern Idaho into a FEWS model. We first used the ARDI method with scientists and modellers (from various disciplines) conducting research in the system, and then repeated the process with local stakeholders. We compared results from the two cohorts and refined the conceptual model to align with local stakeholders’ understanding of the FEWS. This co-development of a conceptual model with local stakeholders ensured the incorporation of different perspectives and types of knowledge of key actors within the socio-ecological systems models

Biodiversity in rubber agroforests, carbon emissions, and rural livelihoods: An agent-based model of land-use dynamics in lowland Sumatra

AbstractRubber agroforests in the mostly deforested lowlands of Sumatra, Indonesia are threatened by conversion into monoculture rubber or oil palm plantations. We applied an agent-based model to explore the potential effectiveness of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) design through a biodiversity rich rubber eco-certification scheme. We integrated conditionality, where compliance with biodiversity performance indicators is prerequisite for awarding incentives. We compared a PES policy scenario to ‘business-as-usual’ and ‘subsidized land use change’ scenarios to explore potential trade-offs between ecosystem services delivery and rural income. Results indicated that a rubber agroforest eco-certification scheme could reduce carbon emissions and species loss better than alternative scenarios. However, the suggested premiums were too low to compete with income from other land uses. Nevertheless, integrating our understanding of household agent behavior through a spatially explicit and agent-specific assessment of the trade-offs can help refine the design of conservation initiatives such as PES

MASSAI: Multi-Agent System for Simulating Sustainable Agricultural Intensification of smallholder farms in Africa.

The research and development needed to achieve sustainability of African smallholder agricultural and natural systems has led to a wide array of theoretical frameworks for conceptualising socioecological processes and functions. However, there are few analytical tools for spatio-temporal empirical approaches to implement use cases, which is a prerequisite to understand the performance of smallholder farms in the real world. This study builds a multi-agent system (MAS) to operationalise the Sustainable Agricultural Intensification (SAI) theoretical framework (MASSAI). This is an essential tool for spatio-temporal simulation of farm productivity to evaluate sustainability trends into the future at fine scale of a managed plot. MASSAI evaluates dynamic nutrient transfer using smallholder nutrient monitoring functions which have been calibrated with parameters from Malawi and the region. It integrates two modules: the Environmental (EM) and Behavioural (BM) ones. •The EM assess dynamic natural nutrient inputs (sedimentation and atmospheric deposition) and outputs (leaching, erosion and gaseous loses) as a product of bioclimatic factors and land use activities. •An integrated BM assess the impact of farmer decisions which influence farm-level inputs (fertilizer, manure, biological N fixation) and outputs (crop yields and associated grain). •A use case of input subsidies, common in Africa, markedly influence fertilizer access and the impact of different policy scenarios on decision-making, crop productivity, and nutrient balance are simulated. This is of use for empirical analysis smallholder's sustainability trajectories given the pro-poor development policy support

Land use strategies for sustainable rural development under revenue uncertainty: A case from Indonesia

We investigated the economic attractiveness of different land uses and possible payments for carbon in rubber monoculture and agroforest, and biodiversity in agroforest under revenue uncertainty in Jambi, Indonesia. A multi-period programming with Monte Carlo simulation and Brownian motion were used. Findings showed that farm incomes would substantially vary, and to mitigate uncertainty the farmland would be diversified. Further increase in carbon prices would result in enhancing the area of rubber monoculture and would lead to possible trade-off in agrobiodiversity. When the payments for ecosystem services are targeted for agroforest then its returns would increase and reduce farm income variability

Grazing game: a learning tool for adaptive management in response to climate variability in semiarid areas of Ghana

In West Africa, the most extreme predicted effects of climate change are expected to occur in desert and grassland areas. It is crucial for local populations in this region to better understand what such projections signify to them to identify sound adaptation policies and interventions. We developed a game, called the "grazing game," and conducted trials with local farmers at multiple study sites as a learning tool to better understand their behavior in response to climate variability under semiarid conditions in West Africa and to facilitate social learning. The grazing game was designed to reveal the processes that lead to overgrazing and desertification based on the players' interactions with environmental conditions and their resulting decisions. We conducted a total of 23 game trials around the Vea catchment of the Upper East Region of Ghana involving 243 individual farmers. From the games, local farmers exhibited a very positive response to how the game replicated rainfall fluctuations that they currently experience and led to the identification of coping strategies, such as selling cows, seeking government assistance, and engaging in alternative livelihood means. Participating farmers tended to avoid uncertain situations and sought to simplify their decisions, and the game provided insight into the rich local ecological knowledge of environmental indicators. Based on the game trial results, we found that the game facilitated instrumental and communicative learning among the players and facilitators. Further, the game served as a platform where players could share their views, knowledge, and perceptions of climate-related issues

Social Role-Play Games Vs Individual Perceptions of Conservation and PES Agreements for Maintaining Rubber Agroforests in Jambi (Sumatra), Indonesia

Financial incentives can both support and undermine social norms compatible with environmental service enhancement. External co-investment - e.g., through incentives from programs to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) and eco-certification - needs to synergize with local efforts by understanding local dynamics and conditions for free and prior informed consent. We assessed the perceptions and behavior of rubber agroforest farmers under existing conservation agreements as a step toward institutionalized reward schemes for agro-biodiversity using questionnaires and role-playing games (RPG). To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to apply such a combination of methods to explore the perceptions of payments for environmental services (PES). Results revealed a strong conservation belief system and social norms in the research site, with indications that individual interest in converting old rubber agroforest to oil palm, with consequent private gain and loss of local social agro-biodiversity benefits, is suppressed in the social context of a role-playing game. In the game, all financial bids by external agents to secure an oil palm foothold in the village, were rejected despite indications of declining income in the village. Agents promoting an eco-certification scheme in the RPG had success and the responses obtained in the game can assist in the actual rollout of such a scheme without creating unrealistic expectations of its financial benefits. Co-investment schemes that require higher levels of trust and clarity of performance measures will have to address the potential discrepancy between individual preferences and community-level planning and decisions, while recognizing that social norms color the responses of individuals when presented with alternatives

Characterization of the roosting sites of the golden crowned flying fox (Acerodon jubaus) and Philippine giant fruit bat (Pteropus vampyrus) and their effects on dipterocarp forests

In determining the causes of mortality in white lauan (shorca contofta) at the bat roost area, physical observation and soil physico-chemical analysis were done. Likewise, the physico-chemical analysis revealed that there is no signficant difference on the soil nutrient in both roosting and non-roosting site. Hence, this finding confirms that bat droppings may not be the cause of death of the White lauan trees. Data analysis shows that vegetation structure in the bat roost area is significantly different with that of in the control plots or non-roost area. Such findings were accounted for the limited number size and maturity of plant species found in the roost area. On the other hand, the roost area can be considered as disturbed forest with the presence of pioneer species and gap formed by dead trees which drive the bats to move to the inner part of the forest. The tight roosting characteristics or activity of bats on the branches and twigs that results to defoliation is suspected contributory factor in the mortality of the white lauan species as supported by its sensitive characteristics such that they become intolerant as they grow to maturity. To address the issue, recommendations were provided for the conservation and management of these endangered and threatened species